COVID-MATCH65-A prospectively derived clinical decision rule for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

OBJECTIVES: We report on the key clinical predictors of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and present a clinical decision rule that can risk stratify patients for COVID-19. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A prospective cohort of patients assessed for COVID-19 at a screening clinic in Melbourne, Australia. The primary outcome was a positive COVID-19 test from nasopharyngeal swab. A backwards stepwise logistic regression was used to derive a model of clinical variables predictive of a positive COVID-19 test. Internal validation of the final model was performed using bootstrapped samples and the model scoring derived from the coefficients, with modelling performed for increasing prevalence. RESULTS: Of 4226 patients with suspected COVID-19 who were assessed, 2976 patients underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing (n = 108 SARS-CoV-2 positive) and were used to determine factors associated with a positive COVID-19 test. The 7 features associated with a positive COVID-19 test on multivariable analysis were: COVID-19 patient exposure or international travel, Myalgia/malaise, Anosmia or ageusia, Temperature, Coryza/sore throat, Hypoxia-oxygen saturation < 97%, 65 years or older-summarized in the mnemonic COVID-MATCH65. Internal validation showed an AUC of 0.836. A cut-off of ≥ 1.5 points was associated with a 92.6% sensitivity and 99.5% negative predictive value (NPV) for COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: From the largest prospective outpatient cohort of suspected COVID-19 we define the clinical factors predictive of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. The subsequent clinical decision rule, COVID-MATCH65, has a high sensitivity and NPV for SARS-CoV-2 and can be employed in the pandemic, adjusted for disease prevalence, to aid COVID-19 risk-assessment and vital testing resource allocation.

Duration of Respiratory and Gastrointestinal Viral Shedding in Children With SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Data.

BACKGROUND: Children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are more likely to have mild or no symptoms compared with adults and may represent important vectors for transmitting the virus. Little is known about the duration of respiratory and gastrointestinal viral shedding in children with COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To determine the average shedding times of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) via the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts in children. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of Ovid MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane CENTRAL databases for studies reporting real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR) results in children with COVID-19, then extracted and synthesized data on duration of viral shedding from symptom onset in respiratory and gastrointestinal samples. RESULTS: Based on data compiled from 69 pediatric cases, the duration of viral shedding through the respiratory tract is up to 24 days from symptom onset with a mean of 11.1 ± 5.8 days. Of the children who underwent testing with stool PCR, rectal swab or anal swab, 86% returned a positive result. The mean duration of viral shedding via the gastrointestinal tract was 23.6 ± 8.8 days from symptom onset. In 89% of cases, viral shedding via the gastrointestinal tract persisted after nasopharyngeal or throat swabs became negative, for as long as 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to systematically review the duration of respiratory and gastrointestinal viral shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in pediatric patients. These findings may have important implications for infection control strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic.